Greenspan warns of US recession.

Well this news is all over so its hard to ignore; after a recent comment about the worst of the US housing slump hopefully being over, Alan Greenspan commented today on the likelihood of a US recession hitting before the end of 2007.

“When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,” Mr. Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. “For example in the U.S., profit margins . . . have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.”

“While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 . . . with some slowdown,” he said.

Mr. Greenspan said that while it would be “very precarious” to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

If a recession did strike the US later this year, I would be very surprised if the worst was over for the housing slump there, but If they can have a housing market slump during a boom, maybe they could have a real estate boom during a recession.